Haley’s Campaign Demonstrates the Need for Electoral Reform

She can’t win in the current system although she’s the candidate a majority of America’s voters would prefer to either Biden or Trump

Nothing could be more obvious watching Nikki Haley run against Donald Trump in the week between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary: she’s a third-party candidate stuck in a two-party system.

In her speech on the night of the Iowa caucuses, trying to frame her third-place finish in the best possible light, she proclaimed: “Our campaign is the last, best hope of stopping the Trump-Biden nightmare.” 

In the days since, article after article has discussed how Haley’s voters tend to be independents and more moderate Republicans disaffected by the takeover of the GOP by Trump and his MAGA movement.

The problem of course is that there aren’t enough of these voters in a primary election designed to choose a nominee whom the party’s members want. As many in the media have observed, even if Haley prevails in New Hampshire—where election laws are especially lenient in letting nonmembers vote in a party’s primary—down the road she faces more typical partisan primaries, including in her home state of South Carolina, where the Republican party’s portion of the overall electorate has become thoroughly dominated by Trump. (It can’t have helped Haley that Tim Scott, whom she appointed to be U.S. Senator from their state, just endorsed Trump instead of her.)

It has become so clear that Haley occupies a middle lane between Biden to her left and Trump to her right that the centrist group No Labels, which has been planning to field a “unity” ticket if the two parties produce a Biden-Trump rematch, is now courting Haley to be its candidate. On Thursday, Joe Lieberman—the former Democrat who co-chairs No Labels—said, “I think I’m speaking for a lot of No Labels members. Gov. Haley would deserve serious consideration.” 

Haley immediately dismissed the idea, since at least until she sees the results in New Hampshire she is still running to be the Republican nominee. “Nikki has no interest in No Labels, she’s happy with the Republican label,” is how her campaign’s spokesperson put it.

In truth, however, the kind of third-party campaign No Labels is contemplating is a better fit for Haley, given the group of voters to whom she appeals, than becoming the nominee of the now-MAGA version of the GOP.

But it is easy to see why being the No Labels candidate would be unappealing to Haley, or indeed anyone else serious about seeking the presidency, in the current electoral system: there is virtually zero chance of winning—barring some genuinely freakish event, like the death of a major-party candidate shortly before ballots are cast in November.

The existing electoral system is designed for two-party competition. A third party or independent candidate can only serve as a “spoiler”—affecting which of the two major party candidates wins. The only exception is if some third party becomes strong enough to replace one of the two major parties, as the Republicans replaced the Whigs in the nineteenth century.

Right now, the MAGA party is essentially replacing the traditional GOP as the competitor to the Democrats. It seems unlikely that a traditional conservative party led by Haley (and populated by disaffected Republicans like Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, and Larry Hogan) can completely replace the Democratic party as MAGA’s main competitor in a two-party system. There are simply too many progressives and liberals among Democrats for their party to abandon Biden for Haley if the November election were a three-way race between Biden, Haley, and Trump.

In the current electoral system, Haley would come in third, behind both Biden and Trump, whichever of the two major-party candidates came in first. Given the state-by-state structure of the Electoral College, whether Haley was a spoiler for Biden or Trump, pulling more votes from one or the other, would differ from state to state. (In some deep blue or deep red states, Haley wouldn’t even be enough of a factor to be a spoiler, but in the proverbial swing states her share of the votes would make a difference one way or the other.)

Even if Haley would come in third in every state, that doesn’t mean she’s the least preferred of the three candidates. On the contrary, she’s almost certainly the most preferred of the three among the nation’s voters as a whole. It’s just that our existing two-party system is incapable of enabling this preference to prevail.

Given that neither Biden nor Trump would receive a majority of all votes nationwide in a three-way race with Haley, it is necessary to consider how each candidate would fare one-on-one against each other candidate. Based on current polling, it is clear that a majority of Americans prefer Haley to Biden. It is equally clear that a majority of all voters—not just Republicans—prefer Haley to Trump, as Democrats if forced to choose between the two would rather have her than him. Since Trump can’t clear 50% against both Biden and Haley combined, Biden’s supporters plus Haley’s own supporters make up a majority in an all-voters one-on-one between Haley and Trump.

Thus, regardless of whether Biden or Trump would win their one-on-one without Haley in the race, America’s voters plainly prefer Haley to each of the other two when she’s compared directly against each of them. By this analysis, of the three, she’s the one most deserving to win the election even though our existing system can’t achieve this result and will give us either Biden or Trump instead.

I say this not because Haley’s my own first choice among the three. On the contrary, my readers deserve to know that my own strong preference would be for Biden. But in designing an electoral system that fairly treats all voters equally, the question is not which candidate do I personally want to win, but which candidate best represents the preferences of all voters considered equally. In an election involving three candidates, when none receives a majority against both opponents combined, the fairest result is to elect a candidate who receives a majority against each opponent one-on-one. This year, given a choice among Biden, Trump, and Haley, a majority of Americans would prefer Haley to Biden and prefer Haley to Trump, and yet the existing electoral system will prevent this preference from becoming the result.

As we continue to watch this year’s election unfold, I hope we can learn the lesson that we must change the system in order to let a majority of Americans elect the candidate whom they truly most prefer.

(Photo credit: Gage Skidmore)